Gemini Predicted: Crypto Retreats in Tech Pullback, US Soccers Emerges As World Cup Contender, and Vance Retains Spot As 2028 Republican Frontrunner

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Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin retreats after weekend rally: The price of bitcoin briefly topped $65,000 on Monday before paring gains and pushing down toward $62,000 late on Tuesday. The move came as tech-focused stocks retreated amid increasing worries about AI spending and recent hawkish views from the Federal Reserve that could lead to interest rate hikes later this year. Gemini Predictions traders appear increasingly unwilling to concede bitcoin will trend much higher this month, giving it only a 20% chance of ending June at $65,000 or above.
  
  
• (Sports) US men’s soccer edges higher in World Cup contract: After dominating Paraguay in a convincing 4-1 win in their World Cup opener, the US men’s soccer team followed it up with a dominant 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle last Friday. It marked the first time the US men’s team had won back-to-back World Cup matches since 1930. And traders have taken notice, giving the US a 53% chance of making the tournament’s quarterfinals. That would mark the club’s deepest tournament run since it made that round in the 2002 World Cup when it lost 1-0 to Germany.
  
  
• (Commodities) Oil continues to fall amid improving geopolitical picture: Brent crude oil dropped 2% on Monday to around $78, as markets continue to price out the geopolitical risk premium built up since the US-Iran conflict shuttered the Strait of Hormuz in late February. The normalization of Persian Gulf supply flows has convinced traders that the supply shock that pushed Brent above $120 has begun to reverse. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast to $80/barrel in Q4, down from $90, and now expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July.

Contract Spotlight

2028 Republican Nominee for President

Despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent ascent, Vice President JD Vance still has a 44% chance of becoming the next Republican presidential nominee, according to Gemini Predictions.

Rubio’s chances had dropped to 29% as of Tuesday, down from a high of 36% earlier this year. That movement comes after President Donald Trump said earlier this month he would love to see Vance and Rubio team up for a bid without specifying which one he felt should run for president.

With the 2028 presidential election still two-plus years away, there’s ample time for the market to continue to shift.

On the Radar

American League Champion

With the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season nearly half over, it’s officially fair to call this a down season for the American League. Entering Tuesday, only four of the 15 AL teams have winning records, with the Yankees the overwhelming favorite (35%) to advance through the AL and make the World Series. In a sign of the league’s weakness, the Seattle Mariners had the second best chance to win the American League Championship (24%) despite being only one game over .500 after suffering an injury-riddled start to the season. The Toronto Blue Jays (8%), which entered Tuesday with a .500 record at 39-39, are the third most likely team to advance.

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