Gemini Markets: Fed Stands Pat

Welcome to Gemini Markets, your weekly read on crypto, stocks and equities, and prediction markets, all in one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends.

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Fed holds interest rates, crypto inches higher: Despite facing resilient inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week, with officials voting 10-2 to keep the benchmark funds rate between 3.75% and 4%. Crypto markets inched higher following the news, with bitcoin pushing back above $81,000. Most expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise rates one more time before the end of the year. “Inflation remains elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement. “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Bitwise eyes $1.6 million price for bitcoin in 2036: Crypto asset manager Bitwise released a report this week raising its 2036 bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, a 34.3% annual growth rate from the price ended Sept. 30. Crypto has had a disappointing October, but Bitwise remains bullish due to continuing institutional inflows, limited supply, and increasing demand for store-of-value assets. The report projects a base scenario in which bitcoin gains 25% of the projected store-of value market ($110 trillion) and 1% of institutional investment assets ($303 trillion). Read the full paper here.

Bitmine completes share buyback: Ethereum treasury company Bitmine Immersion Technologies has purchased 2.04 million shares of its own stock for $22.48 apiece, valuing the buyback at approximately $45.9 million. The company has completed almost $400 million in share buybacks this year, arguing the company remains undervalued. Additionally, Tom Lee’s company purchased 10,452 ETH for about $24.5 million, giving the company 6,051,933 ETH, or roughly 4.95% of the cryptocurrency’s total token supply. The company has staked 5.23 million ETH, or roughly 86% of its holdings, which will lead to a projected annual yield of $318 million.

Last month, Gemini launched Morning Motion, a live recorded podcast hosted by Austin Oakes and Jeremy Marino that covers financial markets, emerging technology, and whatever else has the internet paying attention. Expect fresh takes, conversations with traders, builders, creators, and a few tangents worth sticking around for.

The hosts recently spoke with Cypherpunk CIO Will McEvoy about the role of Zcash in an age of surveillance.

Listen to the latest episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Microsoft tops cloud earnings estimates: Shares of Microsoft rose 4% after-hours on Wednesday after the software giant’s cloud revenue beat expectations, a signal the company’s massive AI bet has begun to pay off. Microsoft’s Azure cloud business hit $33.17 billion in Q1 ended Sept. 30, marking a 48% gain year-over-year and up from $29.4 billion in the prior quarter. The earnings beat comes in a newsy week for the Redmond, WA-based company after it offered buyout packages for about 60,000 employees on Monday. The company’s stock has jumped about 11% year-to-date.

Alphabet drops after earnings miss: Google parent Alphabet failed to meet analyst expectations in its earnings report Wednesday, with shares dropping about 12% by mid-day Thursday after it posted Q3 revenue of $127.58 billion during the latest quarter ended Sept. 30. The company reported earnings of $2.12 a share, below analyst estimates of $2.99. It also posted negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, its second straight quarter of declines, after it continued to double down on AI infrastructure spending.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Spurs overtake Thunder as NBA title favorites: The NBA regular season is barely more than a week old, but a notable shift has already occurred in Gemini’s pro basketball champion contract. The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the season as favorites, but the Spurs moved into the lead after Thunder guards Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace sustained major injuries, knocking both players out indefinitely. As of Thursday morning, traders gave the Spurs a 23% chance to win the title, followed by the Thunder (20%) and 76ers (13%). Trade the pro basketball champion here.

Traders eye end of Uptober: Uptober has been a bit of a dud for the crypto market, with most major cryptocurrencies trading roughly flat or down despite October’s reputation as a month when crypto trends higher. With only a few days remaining, traders at least remain optimistic the price of bitcoin won’t hit a near-term pullback, giving it a 69% chance it remains above $80,000. But few feel a short-term rally is coming, either, with only a 17% shot it finishes the month at $82,500 or above. Trade the October bitcoin contract here.

Stanley Cup Finals look like a toss-up: The Stanley Cup finals race appears wide open this season. On Thursday, traders gave the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche a 12% chance to win it all, followed by the Edmonton Oilers at 11%, Florida Panthers at 10%, and the Minnesota Wild and Tampa Bay Lightning at 9%. Trade the Stanley Cup Finals winner here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

^*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.