Gemini Markets: Fed Hikes, Bitcoin Shrugs

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Federal Reserve raises interest rates, bitcoin holds steady: The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to lift interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, marking the first interest rate increase from the US central bank since July 2023. The widely expected move pushed the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%, with the hope it drops inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% annual target. While higher rates have typically been viewed as a drag on digital asset prices, bitcoin largely shrugged off the decision even as the broader market pulled back, hovering around $76,000 late Wednesday before inching higher again on Thursday.

Senate rejects CLARITY Act: Following months of tedious negotiations, the CLARITY Act failed in the US Senate on Tuesday in a 49-50 cloture vote, dealing a blow to a crypto industry awaiting market structure legislation. The vote was largely split along party lines, with zero Democrats voting for the bill and a few Republicans also voting no over various lingering concerns over ethics provisions or the potential for bank flight from stablecoin yield rules. Despite the setback, the SEC moved quickly to set rules regardless, launching an innovation exemption to allow tokenized stocks in the US on Thursday.

Zcash holders vote for faster transactions, Bitcoin-style halvings: Owners of Zcash voted on a new upgrade this week dubbed NU7 that would reduce block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and keep the privacy token’s bitcoin-style halving events. The vote came from 2.4 million ZEC kept in the network’s Ironwood shielded pool. The results were tallied by total ZEC holdings rather than the number of individuals voting. The price of Zcash has exploded over the past year, jumping to nearly $1,500 on Thursday, marking a 2,800% jump over the past year.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Dow drops 600 points after rate hikes: The Dow Jones Industrial average dropped 600 points on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.4% and the NASDAQ remaining roughly flat. Meanwhile, the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield traded around 5% during Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, with Warsh raising concerns about the lack of progress toward the bank’s 2% inflation target and most officials penciling in another rate hike later this year.

Dude, Dell shares continue to climb: The price of Dell shares increased 4% on Wednesday, bucking the wider market pullback after Goldman Sachs projected higher forecasts for the AI server market, with Dell well positioned to capitalize on data center buildout. The legacy tech company has been among the best performers in the market recently, pushing up approximately 340% year-to-date. The rally has come in large part because traders now view Dell as a key contributor to building out AI infrastructure rather than solely a personal computer company.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Dodgers press on as World Series favorites despite Ohtani injury: With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers remain the favorite to win the World Series, at 30%. Following a midseason lull, the reigning champs appear to be peaking at the right time again, with a 10-5 record in September, despite Shohei Ohtani hitting the injured list last week. But the club anticipates Ohtani will return before the end of the regular season. Trade the Pro Baseball Champion contract here.

Koivun enters the Biltmore Championship as favorite: The primary leg of the PGA Tour season is over, but tournaments still continue. And rookie Jackson Koivun enters the Biltmore Championship this week in Asheville, North Carolina as the favorite at 7%, holding a narrow lead over Jacob Bridgeman. Koivun has had a stellar rookie season after turning pro in June. Trade the Biltmore here.

Predictions traders continue to doubt recession: Despite recent worries over an AI bubble and the Fed opting to raise interest rates, traders remain unconvinced that the US economy will enter a recession in 2026, with traders giving it only a 5% chance of happening. That’s in part due to strong consumer spending, record corporate earnings, and positive employment trends. Trade a potential recession here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

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