Gemini Markets: Dems Sweep Midterms

Welcome to Gemini Markets, your weekly read on crypto, stocks and equities, and prediction markets, all in one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends.

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Democrats win midterms, volatility ensues: The Democrats swept the midterms this week, overtaking Republicans to gain control of the US Senate and House of Representatives. The prices of major cryptocurrencies rallied Wednesday following the dramatic political shift, then sold off Thursday, with bitcoin dropping to around $76,000 and ethereum dropping under $2,300 amid a wider sell-off in crypto and tech markets. The move was reportedly tied largely to the wider tech sell-off and more than $1 billion in bitcoin ETF outflows in an increasingly risk-off investment environment.

CFTC approves US stock perpetual contracts: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved perpetual futures contracts tied to US equities, paving the way for single-stock perps to begin trading in the US for the first time. These perp contracts will be overseen as security futures, with the CFTC and SEC both providing oversight. Perps are leveraged contracts that do not feature an expiration date, allowing investors to trade nearly 24/5, often with leverage. The Capital Markets Alliance, an exchange industry trade group, has asked a federal court to block the move, arguing it poses risks to investors.

Binance identifies source of record $6.3B hack: Binance has released a statement detailing how hackers were able to steal $6.3 billion in crypto last week, explaining that the infiltrators leveraged a job interview and malware buried in an advertisement to compromise two computers held by the company’s software engineers. Hackers then used another engineer’s computer to steal the $6.3 billion, the company said, marking the largest known heist in crypto’s history. The company has since promised to repay all lost customer funds.

Earlier this year, Gemini launched Morning Motion, a live recorded podcast hosted by Austin Oakes and Jeremy Marino that covers financial markets, emerging technology, and whatever else has the internet paying attention. Expect fresh takes, conversations with traders, builders, creators, and a few tangents worth sticking around for.

We talked with Dalton Skach about trading the midterms, breaking down predictions, campaign spending, and the political dynamics behind some of the biggest races. We also got into tech, AI, and the possibility of a Tesla and SpaceX merger.

Listen to the latest episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Michael Saylor’s STRC retakes $100: Shares of STRC hit $100 this week for the first time since May, restoring some level of investor confidence after it orchestrated more than $2 billion in stock buybacks. The rally marked a milestone for Michael Saylor’s dividend-focused stock offering after it bottomed at an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26. STRC offers investors an annualized dividend rate of 12% based on a $100 stock price, but it can adjust monthly to keep it trading around the $100 price.

AMD beats estimates with another blowout quarter: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported revenue of $13.38 billion and $2.09 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) during the company’s Q3 earnings this week, beating estimates of $13.08 billion and $1.97 EPS. The company’s data center revenue grew 97% year-over-year, jumping from $4.34 billion to $8.5 billion. Shares of AMD have jumped more than 60% over the past year amid the AI boom, but investors' fears over AI capex have contributed to a cool-off, with shares pulling back 35% over the past month, including a nearly 16% dip on Thursday.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Vance remains favorite to earn the Republican nomination in 2028: Despite the setback for his administration in the midterm elections, Vice President JD Vance remains the favorite to earn the Republican nomination in 2028. As of Wednesday, traders gave Vance a 34% chance to earn the bid, followed by Marco Rubio (25%), Ron DeSantis (18%), and President Donald Trump (5%). Trade the 2028 Republican nominee here.

Allen leads NFL MVP race: Is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen going to land another MVP? Allen is in the midst of another stellar offensive season. And the Bills have raced out to a 6-1 record to lead in the AFC East, with Allen racking up nearly 1,800 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Unsurprisingly, the Wyoming product leads the MVP race (33%), followed by Joe Burrow (23%), Brock Purdy (17%), and Caleb Williams (14%). Trade the MVP race.

Traders split on bitcoin’s next move: After bitcoin failed to mount an October rally, traders are eyeing a muted November for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. On Wednesday, investors gave it a 31% chance bitcoin ends the month at $80,000 or higher, a 45% chance it ends the month at $77,500 or higher, and a 59% chance it ends at $75,000 or above. Trade the November bitcoin price here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

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