Gemini Markets: Bitcoin Retakes $80,000

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Bitcoin retakes $80,000 as ETF demand remains strong: The price of bitcoin rose above $80,000 on Thursday, reversing a small pullback earlier in the week. The move came as investors await signals on future monetary policy from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. In the meantime, spot bitcoin ETFs remain strong. US spot bitcoin ETFs posted $314 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking their fifth consecutive session surpassing the $300 million mark. Analysts differ on the next move, with Bernstein predicting bitcoin could recover to $125,000 by the end of the year and hit $150,000 by the middle of 2027.

SEC preps new crypto custody rules: The SEC has sent a proposal to the White House that provides new rules outlining how investment advisers can hold digital assets. The new guidelines would “clarify the framework for the custody of crypto assets for investment adviser and investment companies, as well as make other modernizations needed to remove burdens from certain outdated provisions that are no longer needed to provide investor protection given the evolution in the markets and security trading and holding practices," the SEC said. This is the agency’s latest effort to offer rules of the road for digital assets since chair Paul Atkins took over in 2025.

Grayscale launches Zcash ETF: Grayscale launched the first ever Zcash ETF on Tuesday, offering investors exposure to the fast-rising privacy-focused token. Trading on the NYSE under the symbol ZCSH, Grayscale’s Zcash ETF was converted from the Zcash Trust. It charges a 2.5% management fee, with proceeds going back toward building out the token’s ecosystem. The price of Zcash has soared more than 1,800% over the past year and more than 42% in the last week alone amid rising privacy concerns in an age of quantum computing and super intelligence.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Nvidia beats revenue estimates in another blowout quarter: Nvidia eased some investor concerns about an AI bubble on Wednesday, reporting $96.2 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $2.22 in Q2. That beat Wall Street expectations of $92.3 billion and $2.09 earnings per share, respectively. Shares of Nvidia jumped more than 8% by mid-day Thursday, rising past $227 to push the company’s total market cap to $5.5 trillion. The earnings report comes as AI stocks have seen some drawdowns in recent months over concerns about rising capital expenditures. But Nvidia doesn’t anticipate revenue to drop anytime soon, projecting revenue of $105.1 billion to $110.1 billion in Q3.

Abercrombie & Fitch stock surges: Shares of legacy clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch rose more than 35% on Wednesday, continuing a remarkable corporate turnaround for a brand that first peaked more than a decade ago. The push higher came after ANF announced its 15th consecutive quarter of sales growth. In Q2, the company reported $1.27 billion in revenue, up 5% year-over-year, and $4.17 adjusted earnings per diluted share, surging from $2.32 from the same period last year. The company also received a boost from $100 million in tariff refunds, helping bolster the bottom line.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Tour Championship hits East Lake with Scheffler and McIlroy headlining: The PGA Tour wraps up their primary season with the Tour Championship this week at East Lake, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffer and Rory McIlroy entering the week as favorites, at 22% and 10%, respectively, on Gemini Predictions. Both had eventful performances last week in St. Louis; Scheffler finished T-12th despite battling through an illness and McIlroy’s charge on Sunday to overtake eventual winner Wyndham Clark fizzled out on the back nine. Trade the Tour Championship here.

College football is back: The wait is finally over. College football returns this week with a handful of intriguing matchups for what’s affectionately dubbed “Week Zero.” Bill Belichick’s North Carolina faces off against TCU on 9 a.m. PT Saturday in Ireland, USC takes on San Jose State later that day, and North Carolina State opens with Virginia, among other intriguing matchups. Trade college football here.

Recession odds in 2026 crater: In the not so distant past, economists had dialed up the odds of the US entering a recession, with some even saying it was inevitable. But even recent inflation scares and the ongoing conflict with Iran have failed to sway traders, in part due to strong corporate earnings and continued resilience in consumer spending, among other signals. On Wednesday, Gemini Predictions gave it a 5% chance the US will enter a recession in 2026. Trade the recession odds here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

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