Gemini Markets: Bitcoin Posts Best Quarter Since 2024

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Bitcoin posts best quarter since 2024: The price of bitcoin closed Q3 on Wednesday at around $84,000, a roughly 44% gain that marked the best quarter for the world’s top cryptocurrency since the first three months of 2024. The move higher followed three consecutive quarters of price declines, a dramatic pullback that included the price of bitcoin dipping below $60,000. But the latest rally comes at an ideal time as investors enter October, aka Uptober. Historically, the price of bitcoin has gone higher in 10 of 13 Octobers from 2013 to 2025.

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge records 3.4% gain, cooling rate hike fears: The PCE price index in August jumped 0.3% from July and 3.4% year-over-year, with core PCE rising 0.2% and 3.0% during the same respective periods. The Fed uses core PCE as its preferred inflation gauge, helping the committee set interest rates. The latest reading came in slightly lower than expectations, potentially lowering the chances of another rate hike in October that could weigh on digital assets.

Daines introduces ADAPT Act seeking crypto tax relief: Senator Steve Daines (R-Montana) introduced the ADAPT Act on Wednesday, a bill that would allow consumers to buy goods and services with stablecoins without being required to record a gain or loss. Additionally, the bill would also provide tax relief for cryptocurrencies used to pay transactions costs on goods that cost $10 or less. The bill comes with a range of specific rules; the stablecoin provision would only apply to stablecoins approved under the Genius Act. Read more about the bill here.

Last month, Gemini launched Morning Motion, a live recorded podcast hosted by Austin Oakes and Jeremy Marino that covers financial markets, emerging technology, and whatever else has the internet paying attention. Expect fresh takes, conversations with traders, builders, and creators, and a few tangents worth sticking around for.

Listen to the latest episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

📊 Stocks & Equities

10-year treasury yield hits 24-year high: The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.304% on Wednesday, pushing to its highest point since May 2022. The latest move higher comes amid continued selling pressure on the bond market as investors weigh the ongoing risks of persistent inflation and resilient GDP growth. The main indices retreated Wednesday afternoon after digesting the latest data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% and the Nasdaq inched ahead 0.2%.

Anthropic reveals massive losses in S-1: A Reuters report unveiled Anthropic’s S-1 this week, revealing $42 billion in net losses in 2025 as it hopes to go public later this year at a valuation of $2 trillion or more. The company spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year alone, even as revenue went 12x and reached almost $4.6 billion. And in the prospectus, it said it would spend $518 billion on computing, cloud and other infrastructure costs in the future, even as it seeks US regulation for its frontier models. The company’s much-hyped IPO could reportedly come after the November midterm elections.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Hockey is back: The NHL season began on Tuesday with a slate of games across the day, highlighted by the Florida Panthers taking down the defending Stanley Cup Champions Carolina Hurricanes in an overtime thriller. On Wednesday, the Panthers were the favorite to win the Stanley Cup on Gemini Predictions (15%), followed by the Colorado Avalanche (13%), and the Hurricanes. Trade the Stanley Cup champion here.

Traders viewing October Fed decision: The next Federal Reserve meeting doesn’t take place until the end of October, but traders are already positioning for the next move. And as of Wednesday, the odds were in favor of the committee opting to leave rates steady (77%), with a cut of 25 basis points the second most likely outcome (26%). The long-sought cut desired by President Trump doesn’t appear like a possibility yet, with traders all but ignoring the chances the committee cuts rates (2%). Trade the October Fed decision here.

Yankees emerge as AL favorites after sweeping Red Sox: The New York Yankees had no trouble dispatching the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday night in the American League Wild Card round, cruising to a 9-2 win to sweep the best-of-three series. With the convincing win over its rivals, New York has now surpassed the AL East-champion Rays as favorites to win the American League (39%). Trade the American League champion here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

^*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.