Gemini Predicted: France Pushes Ahead As World Cup Favorite, Crypto Pullback Continues, and “The Miz” Tops NL Cy Young Markets

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Predictions Market Pulse

• (Sports) France leads Argentina as World Cup favorite: France entered the 2026 World Cup as one of the clear favorites, and their loaded squad has done nothing to dispel that as they face off with Sweden on Tuesday in the Round of 32. Led by Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, the team breezed through the Group stage with comfortable wins over Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. And they have a reasonable path through the knockout stage, with traders giving them a 32% chance of winning it all as of Tuesday, followed by Argentina (24%), Spain (13%), England (11%), and Brazil (9%).
  
  
• (Crypto) Bitcoin pauses, then heads lower: The price of bitcoin pushed back above $60,000 on Monday as the broader tech market rallied and Michael Saylor announced a new turnaround plan for Strategy that would involve selling up to $1.25 billion BTC. The move initially helped ease fears that Strategy’s struggles could have a negative impact on the crypto market if they are forced to unload the company’s bitcoin to help fund dividend payments. But bitcoin still dipped below $59,000 on Tuesday amid weak demand. Traders appear somewhat mixed on whether bitcoin will push higher this week, giving it a 52% chance of finishing at $58,500 or higher.
  
  
• (Politics) Becerra becomes heavy favorite to be next California governor: Democrat Xavier Becerra has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become the next governor of California, with traders giving him a 93% chance of winning while Republican Steve Hilton sits a distant second (less than 15%) as of Monday afternoon. Becerra is the state’s former attorney general and served as health secretary under former president Joe Biden. Hilton served as a political aide to UK prime minister David Cameron before moving to California in 2012.

Contract Spotlight

2026 Wimbledon Winner

Jannik Sinner arrives at the All England Club as the clear favorite on Gemini Predictions, and it's easy to see why. The World No. 1 has been the most dominant player on tour over the past year, and the market has taken notice. But Wimbledon has a way of scrambling the rankings, and the field is far from conceding the trophy.

Novak Djokovic — a seven-time Wimbledon champion who has made Centre Court something of a personal residence — remains one of the most dangerous names in the draw. Meanwhile, Ben Shelton has emerged as one of the most compelling American contenders in years, with a big serve tailor-made for the surface, but he lost in the first round on Tuesday to Otto Virtanen in a fifth-set tiebreaker.

Gemini has built a dedicated Wimbledon experience for traders this year, with a curated hub of contracts covering the men's and women's draws. Whether you're following Sinner's bid for another Slam title, watching to see if Djokovic can add to his historic haul, or backing a Shelton breakthrough, the action is live now.

On the Radar

NL Cy Young Winner

Over the past decade-plus, Major League pitchers have continuously pushed the limit when it comes to throwing harder. But the league has never seen anything like Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Nicknamed “The Miz,” Misiorowski has thrown 569 pitches at 100 mph or higher this season, making him arguably the most dominant starter in baseball. Last week, one of his pitches clocked at 105.5 mph, the third highest mark ever recorded. Unsurprisingly, Misiorowski has posted a 9-3 record with a 1.45 ERA in 2026, with traders pricing in a 67% chance he wins the National League Cy Young.

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