Gemini Markets: Zcash Mounts Another Rally

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Zcash keeps moving higher: Is 2026 the year of Zcash? The privacy-focused token surged to almost $1,300 on Wednesday before pulling back Thursday after PPI data checked in slightly above expectations. Grayscale recently launched a Zcash ETF which has already grown to more than $500 million in assets under management. Traders are now reportedly eyeing $1,435 as the next major resistance point, with the privacy token potentially hitting $1,500 if it can break through and maintain recent volume levels.

Bitcoin holds steady as Bessent initiates more bond buybacks: The goal: Push bond rates lower by increasing scarcity, which could theoretically push down rates that have hit recent highs not reached in decades. The latest move comes after the price of bitcoin surged some 25% last month after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a $4 billion bond buyback program.

Hunter Biden’s memecoin craters: It did not go well. The token hit a high of $190.81 within the first two minutes of launch, then fell more than 99% to below $2 by mid-day Wednesday. On Thursday morning, it had dropped to $0.59, giving it a market cap just north of $200 million. Biden named the token after his infamous laptop he left at a Delaware computer repair shop in the leadup to the 2020 US presidential election. The token has a total supply of 1 billion.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Markets drop for a third day in a row as oil pushes higher: the S&P 500 dropped 0.48%, and the NASDAQ trimmed 0.64% on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive day all three indices moved lower. It came as the 10-year Treasury note yield jumped to 4.857%, the highest mark since November 2023. Oil prices didn’t help, with futures for Brent Crude surpassing $101 per barrel and WTI crude closing above $96. Both were the highest since May.

Apple unveils foldable iPhone for $1,999: in one of the first major moves under new CEO John Ternus. The starting price for the new phone, dubbed the iPhone Duo, is $1,999, with the price going as high as $3,200 for models with more memory. Investors had a muted reaction to the news, with Apple shares dropping 0.3% on a day the wider market pulled back.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Shelton’s US Open odds surge after upsetting Carlos Alcaraz: Ben Shelton isn’t the odds-on favorite to win the US Open–that honor goes to Alexander Zverev–but Shelton is suddenly a contender (36%) after knocking off two-seed Carlos Alcaraz in the wee-hours Wednesday morning in the quarterfinals. The match was an instant classic that wasn’t settled until Shelton won a fifth-set tiebreaker with a thunderous ace to knock off Alcaraz for the first time in his career. With the victory, Shelton will face fellow American Frances Tiafoe on Friday in the semifinals.

Traders eyeing September rate hike: With inflation remaining sticky, traders are still anticipating the Federal Reserve to hike rates at their next meeting in September. On Thursday, the odds of a rate hike of 25 bps sat at 65%, with the odds of maintaining the current rate at 37%. that went on record this week saying they anticipate Fed officials to hold rates steady through the end of the year.

NFL season kicks off: The NFL regular season got going on Wednesday, with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks knocking off the runner-up New England Patriots 13-10 in Seattle. Despite returning most of the starters from last year’s championship team, the Seahawks are still nowhere near the favorite to repeat as champions, with traders pricing in a (8%) of it happening compared to the favorite Los Angeles Rams (18%).

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

^*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.