Gemini Markets: Fed Holds Rates Again As Crypto Rises

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, crypto holds: The decision came despite three officials calling for a potential rate hike to combat rising inflation amid the ongoing US war with Iran, which has spiked oil and energy prices across the globe. But new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, despite some previously hawkish comments about combatting inflation, did not signal whether the FOMC would opt for a hike to combat price pressures. Following the decision, the price of bitcoin see-sawed on Wednesday before jumping back above $64,000 on Thursday as tech stocks pushed higher.

Strategy pauses bitcoin purchases for fifth consecutive week: The company instead sold 5.4 MSTR shares for $544.5 million and purchased $25 million in STRC preferred stock in the week leading up to July 26; it raised its USD reserve by $525 million to $3.75 billion. The company holds 843,775 BTC worth approximately $54 billion, but it hasn’t made any new purchases since June 22. MSTR stock has dropped almost 40% year-to-date, trading at around $97 per share.

Zcash implements Ironwood upgrade: The token’s old Orchard pool is now restricted to support withdrawals, with removing funds remaining discretionary. The Orchard protocol had accounted for about 88% of the blockchain’s total shielded token supply at its height. Zcash has dropped about 5% over the past five days, but has nonetheless stood out during the crypto bear market, rising more than 1,000% over the past year.

📊 Stocks & Equities

SpaceX faces more selling pressure: The price of SpaceX stock dropped to $112 on Wednesday, failing to sustain a long recovery after it dropped below $108 earlier this week amid continued selling pressure. Elon Musk’s rocket company has dropped from a high above $225 per share after it went public through a record-setting IPO that raised $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The company is expected to post first-quarter earnings on August 4, with a lock up agreement that will release 911.5 million shares two days later.

AI stocks get pummeled amid bubble fears: Is the AI bubble popping? The move doesn’t reflect a shift in fundamentals but instead a growing level of concern from investors that AI infrastructure spending is growing faster than expected, dampening hopes that future cash flows will meet lofty expectations. Even with Thursday’s move higher, a range of big names have fallen in the past five days after sustained rallies in the preceding months, with AMD dropping 11%, SK Hynix dropping 9%, and Nvidia dropping 7%, respectively.

🔮 Prediction Markets

CLARITY Act odds drop as August recess looms: The chances of Congress passing the CLARITY Act dropped on Thursday after the US Senate turned its attention this week to a bill focused on Russia sanctions and federal nominations. Some investors had remained hopeful that crypto market legislation would be put to a floor vote in the Senate this week, but that appears unlikely now after lawmakers failed to reach a compromise for an ethics provision in the bill that would have satisfied Democrats. The latest delay narrows the chances of the bill being passed into law in 2026, but the Senate does have some additional floor time in September and after the November midterms where they could advance the bill.

Young enters the first round of Rocket Classic as heavy favorite: World No. 3 Cameron Young began Thursday as the overwhelming favorite to win this week’s Rocket Classic in Detroit, with traders giving him a 9% chance to take home his second win of the season entering the tournament. Young has posted an impressive 2026 season, taking home the Tour Championship this spring and finishing runner up earlier this month in the Open Championship with a final round 64. Chris Gotterup, Si Woo Kim, Xander Schauffele, and Jackson Koivon are tied with the second best odds to win this week, at 5%.

Claude leads race for top AI of 2026: With five months remaining in 2026, Claude has maintained a sizable lead in the race to win the top AI of the year at 65%, followed by ChatGPT (18%), Google’s Gemini (12%) and Grok (7%). The snapshot comes days after Anthropic released Claude Opus 5, which the company claims serves as an updated model with more advanced coding and reasoning capabilities along with more capable agents at the same cost as its previous model, Claude Opus 4.8. The company also says it’s nearly as intelligent as its top model Claude Fabel at half the price.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

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