Gemini Markets: Crypto Roars Back

*Welcome to Gemini Markets, your read on crypto, prediction markets, and stocks, all in one place. Gemini Markets is your single weekly briefing on everything financial markets, reflecting Gemini’s push to become an all-in-one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends. *

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Crypto rallies after US announces bond buyback program: The price of bitcoin surpassed $72,000, ether pushed past $2,300, and other cryptocurrencies also climbed this week, breaking months of subdued trading activity amid the crypto bear market. The spark came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US would double the country’s bond buyback program from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, a move meant to calm bond markets and improve the agency’s cash and debt management by re-absorbing long-term government securities. The bond market has been under some strain in recent months, in part due to a rising federal deficit that hit $40 trillion this week. The move from Bessent helped increase risk appetite for some investors, helping wipe out more than $3 billion in bitcoin shorts over 24 hours.

SEC proposes new crypto rules: The SEC proposed a new framework this week to allow issuers to launch certain digital assets sans the regulatory rules that apply to securities, marking the SEC’s first attempt to provide digital asset regulation after Congress failed to pass the CLARITY Act earlier this month. Specifically the proposed rule would allow issuers exemptions from the Securities Act of 1933. The first exemption would permit offerings of up to $5 million during a four-year period. The second would permit as much as $75 million during each 12-month period, though “issuers would be required to provide financial statements and be subject to ongoing reporting requirements.”

Trump meets with crypto industry leaders: President Donald Trump held a meeting with crypto industry leaders on Wednesday at the White House, then held a press conference where he urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and touted a range of other crypto-focused accomplishments. Those in attendance included Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and others. The Senate is expected to hold a formal vote Sept. 15 on the digital market structure bill; it will need 60 votes to pass before it can head to the House of Representatives for a concurrent vote.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Moderna surges 177% after skin cancer vaccine shows positive results: Shares of Moderna jumped approximately 177% on Wednesday after the company’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine showed positive results in a late-stage trial. Administered alongside Merck’s Keytruda immunotherapy medicine, Moderna’s mRNA vaccine hit key goals for more than 1,100 patients with high-risk or advanced-stage melanoma who had the cancer surgically removed, essentially keeping the disease from returning for a longer period. Merck shares also jumped 12% on the news.

AI chip stocks endure more volatility: The rally for major chip stocks came to a halt this week, reflecting a broader cooling of the popular AI trade that’s fueled markets through much of 2026. The price of Broadcom fell almost 5% on Wednesday after Marvell Technology agreed to a deal with Alphabet, which serves as Broadcom’s largest customer. Additionally, shares of Intel and AMD also dropped 4% respectively, failing to ride the momentum created by the Treasury’s decision to double the scale of the bond buyback program.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Traders eye $75,000 bitcoin at end of the month: Bitcoin’s unexpected rally has reset trader expectations for the top cryptocurrency. On Thursday, the odds of bitcoin ending the month of August at $75,000 or above increased to 27%, more than tripling from the previous day. Expectations are slightly more muted in the near-term, with traders pricing in a 25% chance the price of bitcoin hits $73,500 by the end of the work week. Trade monthly bitcoin prices here.

Traders still anticipate Fed to hold in September: Despite a report this week that more Federal Reserve officials favor a rate hike in September if inflation continues, traders still don’t see it happening. The odds of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at between 3.5% and 3.75% at their September meeting sat at 73% on Gemini Predictions on Thursday, with the odds of a rate hike at only 31%. The news comes after a relatively tame inflation reading last week, with core inflation rising about 2.5% over the past year. Trade the Fed decision here.

Houston Astros still the favorite in AL West despite mediocrity: With a little more than a month remaining in the regular season, the Houston Astros remain the favorite to take home the AL West crown, at 52%. The Astros have struggled of late, dropping a weekend series to the Seattle Mariners and losing Tuesday to the Los Angeles Angels, but the preseason favorite Mariners have faltered after at turn, opening the door for Houston. Following their series win over the Astros over the weekend, the Mariners lost 22-0 to the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday, tying the margin of largest shutout in MLB history, a feat last achieved in 1888. Trade the AL West race here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

^*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.