Gemini Markets: Bitcoin ETFs Stage Rally

Welcome to Gemini Markets, your weekly read on crypto, stocks and equities, and prediction markets, all in one super app. This is the newsletter that will help inform you about what’s driving crypto and stock prices, tradfi market trends, and prediction market trends.

📈 Crypto Markets Overview

BlackRock’s crypto ETF posts best day in 12 months: The demand for BlackRock’s landmark bitcoin ETF continued to grow this week. And now the asset management giant is planning to double down. IShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded approximately $665 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the largest single-day inflows since October 2025. BlackRock also filed an application this week to launch iShares Protect Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF, an exchange-traded fund that offers investors downside protection against bitcoin price swings while also capping potential gains. Institutional demand for crypto ETFs has remained strong this week, with three funds posting more than $1 billion in inflows.

Zcash eyes upgrade on November 5: Zcash developers have set their sights on November 5 for the NU7 mainnet upgrade. The upgrade will reportedly trim block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. It would also allocate 60% of transaction fees for future block rewards. The upgrade will also eliminate the network’s legacy Sprout v4 transaction format. Zcash has mounted a renewed rally the past five days ahead of the upgrade, jumping almost 10% after it pulled back toward $1,100 earlier this month. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency has rallied more than 400% over the past 12 months, helping push its market cap to almost $21 billion.

Crypto continues trading in tight range: The crypto market has had a sluggish October. Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies mounted a modest rally mid-week before reversing course Thursday amid a wider tech sell-off. October has historically served as a month for bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies to rally, but the lack of major bull narratives this year has kept digital assets from making its typical push amid a tougher macroeconomic backdrop. As of mid-day Thursday, the price of bitcoin was trading around $81,400.

Last month, Gemini launched Morning Motion, a live recorded podcast hosted by Austin Oakes and Jeremy Marino that covers financial markets, emerging technology, and whatever else has the internet paying attention. Expect fresh takes, conversations with traders, builders, creators, and a few tangents worth sticking around for.

The hosts recently spoke with Drew From Web3 about how to build a content creation business using AI without sacrificing quality.

Listen to the latest episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

📊 Stocks & Equities

SpaceX beats earnings expectations, Musk floats merger with Tesla: Shares of SpaceX jumped more than 10% on Wednesday after the company reported $14.6 billion revenue in Q3 on Tuesday, a 161% increase from the same period a year earlier. The company posted net income of $4.4 billion after it lost more than $1 billion during the same period a year earlier. Founder Elon Musk said on the earnings call he was considering a merger with Tesla, noting there’s “a lot to be gained from cooperating.”

Tech stocks sell off as AI continues pullback: The Nasdaq index dropped about 2% by mid-day Thursday, with AI stocks continuing a sell-off after a brief respite earlier this week from AI spending concerns. The latest dump came amid some investor concern about renewed tension in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have also expressed concern about the sustainability of ambitious corporate AI spending plans in a restrictive rate environment.

🔮 Prediction Markets

The World Series is almost here: Few sporting events beat the drama of postseason baseball. And the World Series this year will take on added meaning for two teams that have never won a championship. The Milwaukee Brewers are currently the popular pick to break their long drought, with Gemini Predictions traders giving the National League champs a 68% chance to knock off the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series. Trade the pro baseball champion here.

Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA season as trading favorites: The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with a slate of games featuring the league’s top franchises. The Thunder took down the San Antonio Spurs 116-104 in a testy battle that could serve as a preview of the Western Conference Finals. Traders currently give the Thunder a leading 27% chance to capture the NBA title, followed by the Spurs at 23%. Trade the pro basketball champion here.

Democrats favored to take back Congress: With the midterms a few weeks away, traders have become almost certain that the Democrats will regain control of the US House of Representatives and are also favoring them to win the US Senate. As of Wednesday evening, there was a 93% chance Democrats retake the House and a 70% chance they win back the Senate. Trade the US House here. Trade the US Senate here.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

^*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.