Gemini Predicted: LA Mayoral Race Narrows, Brunson Remains NBA Finals MVP Favorite, and Crypto Rally Fades

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Predictions Market Pulse

• (Politics) Bass surges in LA mayor race: Incumbent Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman appear poised to face each other in a run-off race this fall after both candidates pulled ahead of former reality television star Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor primary race this weekend. Pratt had waged an effective campaign to put himself in the mix, with his odds in the 30% range over the past month, but he ultimately fell short of cracking the top two in the Democratic stronghold city. As of Tuesday afternoon, Bass had a 60% chance of being re-elected.
• (Crypto) Bitcoin fails to sustain rally: The price of bitcoin pushed toward $64,000 on Monday, pushing back from last week’s sell-off amid some renewed optimism crypto prices could now push higher. But bitcoin quickly dropped back toward $61,000 on Tuesday, dampening hopes of a longer rally as the broader tech market retreated. Still, bitcoin traders appear somewhat optimistic prices could climb higher this month, giving the top cryptocurrency a 52% chance it ends the month of June above $62,500.
• (Sports) Golden Knights remain Stanley Cup favorites: The Las Vegas Golden Knights are on the verge of their second Stanley Cup win in less than a decade since their founding. Over the weekend, Golden Knights topped the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4 in double overtime, with Shea Theodore scoring the game winner, after Vegas surrendered a four-goal lead in the third period. Vegas now leads the series 2-1 entering Game 4 on Tuesday night, with traders giving the club a 78% of winning the Stanley Cup.

Contract Spotlight

NBA Finals MVP

When the New York Knicks need a big shot, they almost always turn to Jalen Brunson. Since joining New York in 2022, the perennial All-Star has typically thrived with the shot clock winding down. And the Knicks have leaned on Brunson extensively during the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs.

Traders have taken notice, with Brunson still holding a 53% chance to win NBA Finals MVP after the Spurs knocked off New York 115-111 on Monday night in Madison Square Garden to cut New York’s series lead to 2-1. Despite the loss, Brunson played his best game of the series in front of a raucous crowd, pouring in 32 points on 11-of-25 shooting, even knocking down a three over Victor Wembanyama to cut San Antonio’s lead to three in the closing seconds.

The performance marked a bit of a bounceback for Brunson after he had an uncharacteristic shooting night in New York’s Game 2 win. And it likely increased his chances that the Villanova product will indeed take home NBA Finals MVP honors if the Knicks romp to their first NBA Championship since 1973.

On the Radar

Men's World Cup Winner

After years of anticipation, the World Cup kicks off this week, with the United States hosting the World Cup for the first time since 1994. Alas, a US team led by coach Mauricio Pochettino is a major longshot, with traders giving the US a 4% chance of winning it all. Over the weekend, the US dropped a friendly with Germany 2-1 in their final tune-up before they take on Paraguay on Friday in their World Cup opener.

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