Gemini Predicted: Anthropic Registers for IPO, Bitcoin Drops Below $68,000, and Spurs Emerge As NBA Finals Favorites

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Predictions Market Pulse

• (Tech) Anthropic registers for IPO: Anthropic announced on Monday it had confidentially filed for an IPO, putting the AI juggernaut on pace to go public sometime this fall. The news comes after the company announced last week it had raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round that valued the maker of Claude at nearly $1 trillion, with Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital leading the round. With the investment, Anthropic has surpassed competitor OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation and now appears poised to beat them to the public markets.
  
  (Crypto) Bitcoin continues slide after Strategy reveals sale: The price of bitcoin dropped below $68,000 on Tuesday, a day after Strategy announced it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million. The bitcoin treasury company said funds from the sale will go toward funding dividend payments for STRC, the company’s preferred stock. It marked the first time Michael Saylor’s company had announced a bitcoin sale since 2022. Despite the move, Gemini Predictions traders still had priced in a 55% chance bitcoin would retake $68,000 by the end of the week, signaling reaction to the sale might be slightly overblown.
  
  (Sports) Spurs enter NBA Finals after upsetting defending champs: Entering the NBA’s Western Conference Finals, the common belief was the winner of that series would be a favorite entering the NBA Finals. And that proved true after the San Antonio Spurs knocked off the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on Saturday night. With the NBA Finals set to tip off Wednesday, the Spurs are being given a 64% chance to knock off the New York Knicks, while New York has a 39% chance to win it all.

Contract Spotlight

Pro Hockey Champion

Canada’s Stanley Cup drought will continue for at least another year. The Carolina Hurricanes knocked off the Montreal Canadiens over the weekend, rolling to an Eastern Conference Finals win in five games.

The Hurricanes victory secured Carolina a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals against the Las Vegas Golden Knights. And it ensured they would be the favorite against a Vegas team that made an improbable run through the Western Conference playoffs after firing head coach Bruce Cassidy and replacing him with John Tortorella in late March with only eight games remaining in the regular season.

As of Tuesday afternoon, traders gave the Hurricanes a 62% chance to win the Stanley Cup, with Vegas holding a 42% chance of winning. Even though they’re still an underdog, it marks a stunning turnaround for a Golden Knights team that had fewer wins than six teams that missed the playoffs altogether.

On the Radar

Fed Decision in June

Don’t expect any big surprises from the upcoming Fed meeting later this month. As of Monday, traders had priced in a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, which will mark the first under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, a key inflation gauge, jumped 3.8% year-over-year in April, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

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