Gemini Predicted: Scheffler Remains Favorite Entering Masters Week, Bitcoin Wakes Up, and Oil Pushes Past $110

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Predictions Market Pulse

(Sports) Scheffler enters Masters week as the favorite: Do you like World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or the field? Scheffler began the week on Gemini Predictions as the favorite to win the 2026 Masters, which will start this week at Augusta National. Traders as of Tuesday gave Scheffler a 16% chance of winning golf’s biggest major for the third time. And it’s not particularly close, with Jon Rahm (10%), Bryson DeChambeau (9%), and defending champion Rory McIlroy (9%) behind him. Scheffler has already won once and finished in the top 10 three times in his six starts in 2026, but he has finished outside the top 20 in his past two events, tying for 22nd and 24th in the Players Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, respectively.

(Crypto) Bitcoin wakes up from recent lull: The price of bitcoin briefly broke the $70,000 mark on Monday, pushing more than 4% higher after recently trading in a tight range amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. Despite pulling back on Tuesday, traders on Gemini Predictions appear increasingly bullish that the bottom for the latest four-year cycle is in, with a 36% chance bitcoin finishes the week at $70,000 or higher and a 50% chance it stays at $69,000 or higher. The recent price movement has reinforced bitcoin’s role as a store of value since the mid-cycle pullback that began last October.

(Commodities) Oil markets edge up slightly amid ceasefire talks: The price of oil and stocks seesawed on Monday after President Trump said Iran’s ceasefire proposal was significant but still “not good enough.” On Tuesday morning, Trump escalated his rhetoric, urging Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz before an 8 pm deadline. Following the remarks, the price of Brent crude oil dropped below $109 and WTI pushed above $113. In the near term, traders expect oil prices to remain high, giving it a 57% chance that the price of Brent crude remains above $108 by the end of April.

Contract Spotlight

Which party will win the US Senate?

A few months ago, this contract was barely worth analyzing. Republicans were sitting at 70%+ favorites to hold the Senate throughout Trump's second term, buoyed by a 53–47 seat advantage and what looked like a favorable electoral map. Today, that edge has evaporated.

With 35 seats on the line, 22 currently held by Republicans, the structural math was always going to be a challenge for the GOP to navigate. Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to reclaim the majority, and the environment is increasingly tilting their way.

This contract has made a dramatic journey from near-certainty to a genuine coin flip. It’s now tipped slightly in favor of Democrats. The market is pricing in the full weight of midterm history and a dynamic political environment for the GOP, while acknowledging that the Senate map gives Republicans a structural floor that the House simply doesn't have. For traders, the value question is whether the current price adequately reflects the correlation between presidential approval and Senate outcomes or whether it's overshooting based on a sentiment cycle that still has seven months to turn.

On the Radar

Pro Basketball Champion: Oklahoma City Remain Favorite

With the NBA Playoffs set to tip off April 18, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorite to win back-to-back NBA Championships thanks to a stifling defense and the meteoric rise of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Traders have given the Thunder a 42% shot of bringing home the title, followed by the San Antonio Spurs (20%), the Boston Celtics (17%), and the Denver Nuggets (10%).

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