Gemini Predicted: NBA Play-In Tournament Tips Off, Bitcoin Traders Eye $75K, and Oil Settles Below $100 Per Barrel

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Predictions Market Pulse

(Sports) NBA Play-In Tournament tips off Tuesday night: The NBA Playoffs don’t officially begin until Saturday, but the SoFi Play-In Tournament tips off Tuesday with the Nos. 7-10 seeds playing for the final two playoff spots in the Western and Eastern Conference, with Miami Heat taking on the Charlotte Hornets and the Portland Trail Blazers facing the Phoenix Suns. Then on Wednesday, the Orlando Magic take on the Philadelphia 76ers and the Golden State Warriors face the LA Clippers. While the games should generate plenty of interest, Gemini Predictions traders aren’t convinced any of the aforementioned teams are serious title contenders, giving each just a 2% chance of winning the NBA Championship.

(Crypto) Bitcoin pushes higher as traders eye $75,000 price target: The price of bitcoin jumped above $75,000 on Tuesday, pushing higher on a day tech stocks rallied while largely shrugging off fears over a prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran. The latest move comes after bitcoin traded in a tight range after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, bottoming out around $63,000 before the rebound. Gemini Predictions traders appear split on the next major price move this week. As of Tuesday, weekly bitcoin contracts gave bitcoin a 50% chance of finishing the week at $75,500 or higher.

(Commodities) US blocks Iran’s ports after negotiations stall: The US instituted a blockade on Iran’s ports in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after negotiations for a peace agreement stalled over the weekend in Pakistan. The price of Brent crude oil subsequently jumped almost 3%, nearly settling at $98 per barrel, and the price of WTI crude increased about a percentage point, before pulling back Tuesday. Gemini Predictions traders appear optimistic prices will remain steady in the near term, giving it a 43% chance Brent crude will finish the week at $93 or higher and a 30% chance WTI crude will remain above that mark.

Contract Spotlight

Crypto Market Structure Legislation

Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent penned an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal urging lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act, bringing a renewed spotlight to crypto market structure legislation after months of stalled negotiations. Members of the crypto industry and banking lobby have so far not reached a compromise on whether exchanges should be able to earn interest while holding stablecoins, with banks arguing it could lead to deposit flight. A recent White House report, however, dispelled that notion, arguing the concern was overstated.

“The U.S. didn’t become the world’s financial center by hesitating in moments of technological change. It led by setting standards that others followed,” Bessent concluded. “By passing comprehensive digital-asset market-structure legislation, Congress will ensure that the next generation of financial innovation is built on American rails, backed by American institutions, and denominated in American dollars.”

While there’s still no clear timeline on when the next markup will be, Gemini Predictions traders remain optimistic the bill will be signed into law by the end of 2026, giving it a 66% chance. However, the hopes for it getting done before the summer recess have taken a hit, with just an 18% chance it goes into law by the end of June.

On the Radar

Fed Decision In June

The Federal Reserve Committee meets later this month, but with traders pricing in with near certainty no rate cut, attention is already shifting to the following meeting in June. And that paints a slightly more nuanced picture. The chances of The Fed maintaining rates in June have surged from 48% in early March to 91% as of Tuesday afternoon, while the chances of a 25 bps rate cut have plummeted from 52% to just 9% as traders brace for elevated inflation numbers from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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