Gemini Predicted: Crypto Surges Following Peace Deal, US Men’s Soccer Surprises, and Scheffler Enters US Open Week As Heavy Favorite

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Digital assets stage rally after US-Iran peace deal: The price of bitcoin briefly topped $67,000 on Monday while other major crypto assets surged, continuing a rally after the US and Iran reached an agreement to end fighting and re-open the Strait of Hormuz. The price of Zcash, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana all pushed higher, with Zcash leading the way by gaining approximately 25% over 24 hours. Gemini Predictions traders appeared cautious on Tuesday morning after bitcoin fell back below $66,000, giving the top cryptocurrency a 35% chance of ending the month of June at $67,500 or higher.
  
  
• (Sports) US dominates Paraguay in World Cup opener: Despite entering the 2026 World Cup with modest expectations, the US men’s soccer team overwhelmed Paraguay in a shocking 4-1 win on Friday night at SoFi Stadium. The US dominated both halves, breaking through a staunch Paraguay defense behind two goals from striker Folarin Bologun. The victory helped catapult the US to a heavy favorite entering their second match on Friday against Australia, with traders pricing in a 64% chance of victory.
  
  
• (Politics) Republicans favored to win the US Senate: With the midterm elections now four months away, the Republicans remain longshots to hold on to the US House of Representatives, with traders giving the controlling party just a 25% chance of keeping control of the chamber. But they have recently regained their spot as the favorite to retain control of the Senate, at 60%, after a recent string of controversies by Democrat challenger Graham Platner in Maine. Platner’s race against incumbent Susan Collins is seen as a key race Dems must win to have a chance at controlling the Senate.

Contract Spotlight

US Open Winner

For Scottie Scheffler, the 2026 golf season has marked a slight departure from the way the World No. 1 dominated the PGA Tour in recent years. Since winning the American Express tournament in January, Scheffler has gone winless. But Scheffler has hardly struggled in 2026, with seven top 10s in 12 tournaments. Still, it feels unusual when Scheffler isn’t winning tournaments regularly.

Scheffler enters the week as the heavy favorite ahead of the US Open at Shinnecock Hills in the Hamptons, with traders putting his chances of victory at 15% on Monday afternoon. A Scheffler win would give him the career Grand Slam, putting him in elite company alongside the likes of Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Gene Sarazen. But he’ll need to contend with arguably the strongest field in golf, with McIlroy (8%), Jon Rahm (7%), Matt Fitzpatrick (6%), and Xander Schauffele (6%) among the other favorites. Meanwhile, defending champion J.J. Spaun is garnering less attention, with traders giving him a 3% chance of notching back-to-back US Open wins.

On the Radar

Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026

With Brazil's presidential election set for October, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (56%) has emerged as the favorite over challengers Flávio Bolsonaro (30%) and Renan Santos (17%). Bolsonaro had at one point pulled even with Lula da Silva on Gemini Predictions, but his campaign has struggled to regain its momentum following accusations that he approached a disgraced banker to finance a film about his father, former Brazil president Jair Bolsonaro.

*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency and event contracts involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment or predictions decisions. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini. *