Gemini Predicted: Crypto Rallies, US Soccer Bows Out of World Cup, and CLARITY Act Debate Hits Final Stretch

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin heads higher despite Strategy sale: The price of bitcoin pushed above $64,000 on Monday before paring gains on Tuesday, with traders pricing in a 36% chance it ends the week at $64,000 or higher. The positive price movement came on the same day Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced it sold $216 million worth of bitcoin and reported an unrealized loss of $8.32 billion on its bitcoin holdings in Q2. The bitcoin treasury company has recently shifted from a pure play bitcoin acquisition strategy to actively buying and selling its bitcoin holdings.
  
  
• (Sports): US bows out of World Cup in Round of 16: The US men’s soccer team fell behind early and couldn’t overcome a handful of defensive mistakes in an eventual 4-1 loss to Belgium in Seattle on Monday, ending the US run in the Round of 16. The loss denied the US the chance to reach their first quarterfinals since 2002, a goal that felt achievable after Mauricio Pochettino's squad went 2-1 in the group stage and then defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, with their chances of reaching the quarterfinals topping out at nearly 60%.
  
  
• (Politics) CLARITY Act debate hits critical stretch: With roughly a month left before lawmakers embark on their August recess, the next few weeks are critical if Congress hopes to pass the CLARITY Act, crypto’s long-sought market structure legislation. The act would create a framework to regulate digital assets by distinguishing between crypto commodities and securities, potentially sparking billions in institutional flows for digital assets. But if this version of the legislation has any chance of passing, lawmakers will likely need to vote on it before Congress takes its summer recess in August prior to the midterms.

Contract Spotlight

Fed Decision in July

It’s a new day at the Federal Reserve under recently appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Last month, in his first formal presser as chair, Warsh said the Federal Reserve would no longer offer any guidance on interest rate decisions, breaking years of precedent. That stance has made it harder to anticipate the committee’s next move, but traders are still fairly certain there will be no rate hike at the July meeting, pricing in an 88% chance they leave rates at between 3.50% and 3.75%.

While Warsh has sounded hawkish at times while pledging to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, there’s some evidence showing inflation could be easing, with oil prices dropping to their lowest level since the war with Iran began in February. Meanwhile, traders are leaning toward inflation having already peaked after the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) jumped 4.1% year-over-year in May.

On the Radar

McGregor vs. Holloway

Thirteen years after their first meeting, Conor McGregor and Max Holloway will run it back as welterweights. The rematch headlines UFC 329, set Saturday, in Las Vegas as part of International Fight Week, with the main card kicking off at 9 p.m. ET.

On Gemini's prediction market, the "Yes" contract for McGregor is currently trading at 37 cents, implying the market sees him as the underdog heading into fight night. McGregor hasn't competed since breaking his leg at UFC 264 in 2021 and enters riding a 1–3 stretch in his last four outings.

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