Gemini Predicted: Crypto Markets Stabilize Ahead of Peace Talks, Steyer Emerges in California Governor Race, and NBA Playoffs Underway

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto): Crypto markets hold steady ahead of anticipated peace talks: After dipping briefly on Monday, the price of major cryptocurrencies traded in a tight range Tuesday after US Vice President JD Vance paused a planned trip to Pakistan to engage in a second round of peace negotiations with Iran. On Monday evening, Iranian officials said they had not yet made a decision on whether they will attend the negotiations after they accused the US of violating the ceasefire by seizing an Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. But with the ceasefire set to expire, traders anticipate it will happen. As of Tuesday, Gemini Predictions priced in a 50% chance bitcoin ends the week at $76,000 or above.
• (Politics): Frontrunner emerges in California governor race: Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer has pushed ahead in predictions trading as the favorite to become the next governor of California. As of Tuesday, Gemini Predictions traders had priced in a 59% chance the Democrat will win the state’s gubernatorial race, with fellow Democrat Katie Porter a distant second (15%). The latest move higher for Steyer comes weeks after frontrunner Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race and resigned as a US congressman after multiple women came forward with allegations of sexual misconduct.
• (Sports) Oklahoma City Thunder remain heavy favorites in NBA Playoffs: The NBA Playoffs tipped off this past weekend, with just one major upset coming when the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons lost at home to the No. 8 Orlando Magic on Sunday, extending Detroit’s 11-game postseason losing streak. Otherwise, the favorites rolled, as the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and San Antonio Spurs all prevailed. So far, Gemini’s Pro Basketball Champion contract prices the Thunder’s title chances at 52%, followed by the Spurs (20%), Celtics (17%), and Denver Nuggets (10%), indicating Oklahoma City remains the heavy favorite to win back-to-back titles.

Contract Spotlight

Pro Baseball Champion

It turns out having a $400 million-plus payroll and arguably the best roster in baseball really does instill confidence from traders.

Gemini Predictions launched our Pro Baseball Champion contract this week and the Los Angeles Dodgers quickly shot out as the frontrunner, with traders giving the Dodgers a 36% chance of winning the World Series, followed by the New York Yankees (12%) and Seattle Mariners (9%). After picking up prized free agent Kyle Tucker this offseason, the Dodgers have raced out to an MLB-best 16-6 record this season, buoyed by a power surge from Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, and others.

Still, nothing is guaranteed at this point in the season, especially given the strength of the NL West. After dropping two games to the Colorado Rockies over the weekend, the Dodgers lead the San Diego Padres by only a half-game in the division. Interestingly, traders have yet to fully buy in to San Diego’s run, giving the Padres only a 6% chance of winning it all.

On the Radar

CPI Year-Over-Year in April

The April contract on Gemini Predictions is now one of the more intriguing inflation bets of the year. With the market concentrated around the 3.5–3.6% range and the "No" side of 2.9% sitting at 97%, traders are clearly not expecting a quick snapback toward the Fed's target. The open question is whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will drain enough energy pressure from April's reading to pull the number back toward 3.3% or whether supply chain pass-through effects take months to unwind, keeping inflation elevated. The April CPI report drops May 12.

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