Gemini Predicted: Commodity Prices Continue To Swing, The Final Four Is Set, and Traders Set Sights on S&P 500

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Markets) Commodities contracts remain volatile: March was a wild month for commodities markets, with oil prices upended by US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the latter’s subsequent decision to close the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil has since gone haywire, with brent crude trading in the $90–$112 range as diplomatic signals and the prospect of coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases from G7 nations have injected uncertainty. Meanwhile, copper, which hit an all-time intraday high near $14,500 per metric tonne in January, has retreated to approximately $12,250 per tonne as a slowdown in Chinese industrial purchasing weighs on demand. Goldman Sachs recently warned of a potential bearish correction ahead, with analysts projecting prices could slide toward $11,000 by year-end amid an anticipated global surplus.

• (Sports) Get ready for the Final Four: The NCAA Tournament is never short on drama, but UConn’s last-second three to take down Duke on Sunday exceeded expectations and wreaked havoc on prediction market contracts that had Duke slated to advance. The Final Four now tips off this weekend in Indianapolis with No. 2 UConn against No. 3 Illinois and No. 1s Arizona and Michigan facing off. Gemini Predictions traders firmly believe the national champion will come from the winner of the latter matchup, pricing in a 37% chance of Arizona winning the national championship, followed by Michigan (34%), Illinois (21%), and UConn (17%). What do you think?

• (Crypto) Bitcoin and ethereum contracts send mixed signals: The price of bitcoin and ether edged higher Monday, pushing above $67,000 and $2,000, respectively, after President Donald Trump said the US had made “great progress” in negotiations with Iran to end US military intervention in the region. The top two cryptocurrencies have been caught in a storm over the past few months, with uncertainty over Fed policy, global macro pressures, and wider fears of a US recession weighing on prices. Gemini Predictions traders currently give bitcoin a 25% chance of finishing the month with a price of $67,500 or above and a 51% chance ether finishes March $2,000 or higher.

Contract Spotlight

The S&P 500 at Year-End: Traders Not Panicking Yet

The S&P 500 fell while oil prices continued to climb on Monday, with the broad index dropping 0.39% to 6,343.73. That’s down more than 9% from the 52-week intraday high and down 7.5% year-to-date, with losses approaching correction territory amid the rampup in US and Israeli military intervention in the Middle East. The latest move downward has traders both trying to call the bottom and looking forward to the end of 2026 with inflation pressures remaining sticky.

Major banks are now staking out dramatically different year-end targets, underscoring just how much genuine uncertainty is priced into this market. JPMorgan recently slashed its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500, and warned the index could slide to as low as 6,000 in the near term if macro headwinds intensify. Goldman Sachs is holding its 7,600 target. But it has also outlined a downside scenario of 5,400 in a severe oil shock. UBS is the most bullish of the major banks, maintaining a 7,700 target fueled by AI rollout and a supportive Fed.

On the Radar

NHL Stanley Cup Champion: Colorado Avalanche Remain the Heavy Favorite

As the NHL regular season winds down, the Colorado Avalanche are closing in on wrapping up the No. 1 seed and securing home-ice advantage throughout the NHL Playoffs. They currently have a eight-point lead over the Dallas Stars and one game in hand, putting them in a prime position to secure the President’s Trophy barring a late-season collapse. After getting off to a scorching start, the Avalanche have been dominant through most of the regular season, and traders have taken notice, giving Colorado a 26% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

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