Gemini Predicted: Bitcoin Tumbles Below $75,000, Knicks Title Odds Jump, and Oil Prices Remain Volatile

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin tumbles below $75,000 amid ETF sell-off: The price of bitcoin dipped below $75,000 on Wednesday, marking another drop on a day traditional indices edged higher. The move lower came after Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn identified a $1.29 billion block sale of IBIT, BlackRock’s popular spot bitcoin ETF. Gemini Predictions traders now appear split on where bitcoin heads next, giving bitcoin a 51% chance of trading at $75,000 or above by the end of May.
  
  
• (Sports) Knicks title odds jump after convincing sweep over Cleveland Cavaliers: After engineering a dominant run through the Eastern Conference playoffs to reach their first NBA Finals since 1999, the New York Knicks are no longer a longshot to win the NBA title. With the Oklahoma City Thunder leading the San Antonio Spurs 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals, Gemini Predictions traders gave the Knicks a 33% chance of becoming the next NBA champion, up from a low of 4% in March.
  
  
• (Commodities) Oil prices remain volatile as US-Iran talks drag on: The price of Brent crude oil jumped 3% to $99 per barrel on Tuesday after the US launched strikes against Iran’s missile sites and naval assets. Iran said the move was a “grave violation of the ceasefire agreement” while the US military said they were “self-defense” strikes. The two sides have been unable to come to a peace deal despite months of negotiations, keeping oil prices elevated.

Contract Spotlight

Men's French Open Winner

US men’s tennis players have a checkered history at Roland Garros. No US men's player has won since Andre Agassi accomplished the feat in 1999.

Traders aren’t expecting that to change in the 2026 French Open. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner (Italy) remains the overwhelming favorite after cruising to a first-round win, with traders giving him a 77% chance of taking home the major as of Tuesday. Sinner is 18-0 this season playing on clay courts after winning in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome.

World No. 5 Ben Shelton (US) provides the most intriguing hope to defy the odds and take home the title. Shelton defeated Daniel Merida over the weekend 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 in the opening round, moving to 8-4 this season on clay courts. The 23-year-old has had some limited success at the French Open, advancing to the fourth round last year before getting knocked out by Carlos Alcaraz. As of Tuesday, traders gave Shelton a 4% chance to break the US men’s French Open title drought.

On the Radar

Men’s World Cup Winner

The World Cup is almost here. And Gemini Predictions is giving you the chance to get in your trades early. The Men’s World Cup Winner contract has already pulled in $20,000 in volume, with traders eyeing Spain (19%), France (19%), and England (13%) as the early favorites. Despite hosting the tournament, the United States is considered a big longshot, with just a 3% chance of winning.

*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency and event contracts involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment or predictions decisions. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini. *