Gemini Predicted: Bitcoin Pushes Back Toward $65,000, LeBron Plots Next Move, and Oil Prices Rise Again

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin pushes higher after inflation eases: After pulling back on Monday, the price of bitcoin surged back toward $65,000 on Tuesday after the Consumer Price Index dropped 0.4% month-over-month in June and 3.5% year-over-year. It marked the first time inflation had slowed in five months and eased concerns over potential rate hikes later this year. With the latest move, predictions traders are now pricing in a 44% chance bitcoin ends the week at $65,000 or higher.
  
  
• (Commodities): Oil hits $80 again: The price of Brent crude oil jumped to more than $80 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump said the US would re-assert control over the Strait of Hormuz and launched new strikes against Iran in an effort to exert pressure on the regime. While the uptick dimmed hopes of the US and Iran reaching a new nuclear deal, oil prices nonetheless steadied on Tuesday and still paled in comparison to when prices surpassed $120 per barrel earlier this year.
  
  
• (Sports) Spain enters World Cup finals as heavy favorites: Spain is one win away from capturing another World Cup after dominating rival France 2-0 on Tuesday afternoon in the World Cup semifinals. With the victory, Spain has emerged as the clear favorite to win it all (53%) in what would mark their first World Cup title since 2010. They will face the winner of England and Argentina in the finals on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

Contract Spotlight

LeBron’s Next Team

LeBron James has not exactly stayed out of the news this offseason. The NBA star recently went on a well-publicized golf trip with his 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers teammates to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of his title with Cleveland. And earlier this week, he was front-and-center rapping along at a Jay-Z concert at Yankee Stadium. Oh, last month he announced he will no longer play for the Los Angeles Lakers, ending his run in LA after eight seasons.

But James has not said where he plans to play next season. A decision could come as soon as this week, with predictions traders giving it a 40% chance James returns to the Cleveland Cavaliers to make another run at a title in a wide-open Eastern Conference. That would mark a fitting way to round out one of the best careers in NBA history, but others think he could instead sign with the Golden State Warriors to play with Steph Curry (31%), return to the Miami Heat (18%) or surprise everyone and sign with the Philadelphia 76ers (12%).

On the Radar

Open Championship Winner

The Open Championship heads to Royal Birkdale this week to round out pro golf’s major tournament schedule, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler again favored to take home the championship (13%). But traders anticipate a more wide open tournament than recent majors, giving Rory McIlroy (11%), Matt Fitzpatrick (7%), and Tommy Fleetwood (7%) decent chances of bringing home the Claret Jug. That’s in part because Scheffler missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, his first missed cut in almost four years.

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