Gemini Predicted: Bitcoin Hovers Around $80K, CLARITY Act Moves Forward, and PGA Championship Week Arrives

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin traders eye $85,000 in May after choppy start to week: The price of bitcoin pushed past $82,000 on Monday before dipping back under briefly $80,000 on Tuesday morning after the CPI print for April hit 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations. The move lower comes amid strong bitcoin ETF inflows and continued uncertainty over the stalemate between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the mixed picture, a majority of traders continue to remain optimistic about the coming weeks, pricing in a 58% chance bitcoin hits $85,000 this month.
  
  
• (Politics) CLARITY Act odds continue to climb: Despite a last-ditch attempt from the banking lobby to derail the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto market legislation is scheduled for a mark-up in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The proposed bill still has a few unresolved issues, including whether it will include an ethics provision, but there’s growing confidence it will finally become law after months of back-and-forth. As of Tuesday, Gemini Predictions traders gave the CLARITY Act a 68% chance of being passed into law by 2027, up from 42% last month.
  
  
• (Sports): Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes trade spots as Stanley Cup favorites: The Hurricanes and Avs have both breezed through the NHL playoffs so far, with each jostling for the number one spot as the Stanley Cup favorite. On Monday, Colorado pummeled the Minnesota Wild 5-2 to take a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference Semifinals. And traders took notice, with Colorado’s Stanley Cup odds surging to 44%, surpassing Carolina. The Hurricanes have breezed through the first two rounds of the NHL Playoffs, sweeping the Ottawa Senators in the first round and the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, pushing their title chances from 16% to 38%.

Contract Spotlight

Los Angeles Mayor Winner

The biggest mover in this month’s political markets is Spencer Pratt, whose odds on the LA Mayor contract have surged from 19% to 36%, a 17-point jump that's hard to ignore. The catalyst? A standout debate performance that appears to have genuinely shifted trader sentiment. Markets had largely written Pratt off as a long shot, but his showing gave traders reason to reassess, and the money followed quickly.

Frontrunner Karen Bass still leads at 57%, but that cushion is looking thinner than it did a week ago. A candidate closing a big gap in a single news cycle is the kind of momentum that keeps incumbents up at night.

With $37,000 in volume on this contract, liquidity is still relatively modest. But that’s significant. It means Pratt's move is a real signal, not noise from a whale. And it also means there's room for odds to swing sharply on the next major development, whether that's a new poll, another debate, or a high-profile endorsement.

At 37%, the market is pricing Pratt as a real contender but not a favorite. If his debate momentum translates into polling movement, there's still upside here. If Bass stabilizes, she remains the value play at 53%.

On the Radar

PGA Championship Winner

The PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club outside Philadelphia this week, with a loaded field vying to take home golf’s second major of the season. Despite a fairly quiet start to the season for his standards, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the heavy favorite, at 19% to win, followed by Rory McIlroy (11%), Cameron Young (9%), and Jon Rahm (8%).

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