Gemini Markets: CLARITY Act Stalls As Senate Recess Looms

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📈 Crypto Markets Overview

Still no vote on CLARITY Act as Senate recess looms: This procedural tactic would pave the way for a potential vote on long-awaited crypto market legislation, but there’s no indication yet it will hit the Senate floor over the next two days. On Wednesday, Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) indicated he was a no vote, dealing a blow to the bill’s chances. As of Thursday morning, trading on Gemini Predictions gave it a 23% chance the CLARITY would pass before the end of the year, down 8% from the previous day.

Saylor speaks out after Strategy’s latest bitcoin sale: It also sold 3,011,361 MSTR shares for $290.6 million. Following the announcement, Saylor clarified his remarks about never selling bitcoin after another week in which the bitcoin accumulation company sold part of its treasury. “When I say “Never Sell Your Bitcoin,” I speak as one saver to another,” Saylor wrote. “I have never sold mine. Not one satoshi. Strategy is a public company, not my wallet. Since 2020, it has disclosed it may buy or sell $BTC to manage capital. Our shared conviction in Bitcoin remains unchanged.”

Bitcoin draws fresh inflows following Coldcard hack: The move comes the week after Coldcard, a cold storage custody provider, suffered a hack that drained more than $100 million in BTC, perhaps pushing some investors to move their digital assets to institutional tradfi products. Despite the inflows, the price of bitcoin continued trading around $65,000 on Thursday afternoon.

📊 Stocks & Equities

Dow continues to charge higher: The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high on Wednesday following positive earnings reports from Amgen, Walt Disney, and Merck, climbing 0.5%, or 263 points, to 54349. The latest move pushed the index higher for the fifth consecutive day, marking its longest winning streak since April 2025 as it climbed 5.3% during that timeframe. It came despite ongoing worries about inflation, the war with Iran, and whether the recent AI spending boom powering the economy is sustainable, creating a volatile trading environment for tech stocks.

SpaceX shares drop again despite strong earnings report: SpaceX stock dropped almost 14% on Wednesday, pushing below $110 per share, after the company posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion for its AI segment and revenues of $7.8 billion on Tuesday in its first earnings report as a public company. Analysts had expected a net loss of $2.39 billion and revenues of $6.81 billion, so the results beat estimates. But analysts remain concerned about a stock lockup period that expires Thursday and growing capital expenditures on AI initiatives. As of Thursday, the company was trading well below its IPO price of $135 per share.

🔮 Prediction Markets

Young enters Wyndham Championship as favorite to repeat: For the second consecutive week, World No. 3 Cameron Young began Thursday as the trading favorite to win this week’s PGA tour event. And there’s good reason to be optimistic about his chances at the Wyndham Championship after he won last year’s event before his breakout 2026 campaign. Young finished eighth last week at the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit and began the first round Thursday with an 11% chance to win this week, followed by Jackson Koivun (6%), and Hideki Matsuyama (5%).

Fed decision in September remains a toss-up: With inflation continuing to run higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, traders are split on whether the Federal Reserve will opt to raise interest rates in September. As of Thursday, Gemini Predictions traders have priced in a 52% chance the FOMC will maintain rates at their current rate. Bond yields pushed higher after Kevin Warsh’s second press conference as Fed chair, suggesting the market questioned whether he would be willing to raise rates quickly enough to fight inflation. But Warsh has maintained he is committed to restoring the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Traders remain skeptical ether prices can retake $2,000 in August: After a prolonged downturn, the price of ethereum has steadily pushed higher over the past two months, rebounding from a low below $1,600 per token to north of $1,900 by Thursday afternoon. But traders remain skeptical that price action will continue higher in August, giving it a 34% chance it ends the month at $2,000 or higher. That’s in part because trading volume remains low and sentiment remains mixed at best among the broader crypto bear market.

Onward and Upward,
Team Gemini

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