Gemini Predicted: CLARITY Act Odds Increase After White House Agrees to Ethics Provision, Crypto Continues Rally, and LA Rams Emerge as Super Bowl Favorite

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Predictions Market Pulse

• (Politics) Clarity Act odds rise: The odds of Congress passing the CLARITY Act before the end of the year jumped to 57% on Tuesday morning after the White House reportedly agreed to an ethics provision that had held up negotiations. While the full text of the new bill has not been released, lawmakers now could potentially bring the bill to the Senate floor for a vote by the end of the week, with bitcoin rallying past $66,000 Tuesday morning on hopes of a deal. Lawmakers have until the August recess to push the legislation to a floor vote, and it will need to pass the House of Representatives with a simple majority vote before President Donald Trump can sign it into law.
• (Crypto) Strong ETF inflows bolster ether rally: The price of ethereum jumped past $1,900 on Monday and continued to rally Tuesday, continuing its move higher as ethereum spot ETFs recorded $105 million in net inflows. The price of ethereum has now increased more than 11% over the past month, surpassing bitcoin’s roughly 3.5% gain as institutional investors showed some renewed interest in altcoins. As of Tuesday afternoon, Gemini Predictions traders had priced in a 29% chance the price of ether would surpass $2,000 by the end of the month.
• (Sports) Traders await Alcaraz update ahead of US Open: With the US Open a little more than a month away, Jannik Sinner has emerged as the favorite to win the tournament, at 55%, followed by Carlos Alcaraz at 31%, according to Gemini Predictions. But Alcaraz is still recovering from a right wrist injury he suffered in April, forcing him to miss the French Open and Wimbledon. The World No. 3 has yet to commit to playing in the US Open and was spotted at the World Cup final on Sunday sporting a bandage on his right wrist.

Contract Spotlight

Who will win the Ballon d’Or this year?

When Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the World Cup final over the weekend, it marked the culmination of a 39-day soccer extravaganza that grabbed the sporting world’s attention. But there’s a major individual award that officials have yet to announce: the Ballon d’Or.

The Ballon d’Or is given out annually to the best soccer player in the world across international and club play, with an international collection of soccer journalists voting on the prize. This year’s award will be announced on October 26 in London.

With a little more than three months before the announcement, traders have tabbed England’s Harry Kane to win the prize (45%), followed by Spain’s Lamine Yamal (12%), and France’s Kylian Mbappé (11%).

Kane is coming off a dominant season at Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga league, with 36 goals in 31 games, before leading England to the World Cup semifinals. Yamal had 16 goals and 11 assists in 28 games for FC Barcelona in Spain’s La Liga, and Mbappé was a dominant presence for Real Madrid before scoring 10 goals in the World Cup.

On the Radar

2027 Pro Football Champion

With the World Cup over, it is never too early to turn attention to football. And traders have done just that, with the 2027 Pro Football Champion contract pulling in more than $21,000 in volume. As of Monday, the Los Angeles Rams had emerged as the favorite at 20%, with the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at 10%, followed by the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens at 9%, respectively.

*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency and event contracts involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment or predictions decisions. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini. *