Gemini Predicted: Bitcoin Retreats From $80,000, April CPI Expectations Hit 3.6%, and Crypto High/Low Contracts Are Here

Welcome to Gemini Predicted, a weekly newsletter where markets tell us the news. Gemini Predicted is built around a simple premise: prediction markets are one of the most honest signals we have about what's actually happening in the world. That's why we publish this weekly newsletter to keep you informed.

Prediction Markets Pulse

• (Crypto): Traders pull back after bitcoin approaches $80,000: Bitcoin has steadily pushed higher over the past two months despite geopolitical conflict, but it may need to wait a little longer before it breaks a key threshold and surpasses $80,000 once again. The top cryptocurrency nearly hit the mark on Sunday, pushing near $79,500, but it reversed course on Monday and Tuesday, dumping below $77,000 amid rising oil price and stalled peace talks with Iran. On Tuesday, Gemini Predictions traders were suddenly in a “risk-off” mood, giving it a 11% chance the price of bitcoin would push to $80,000 or higher by the end of the week.
  
  
• (Economics): April inflation expectations remain elevated ahead of Fed meeting: The Federal Reserve Committee meets over the next two days, with traders all but guaranteeing the group will choose to keep interest rates unchanged. The inflation picture is more nuanced, with traders expecting a big year-over-year jump. On Tuesday, there was a 28% chance April CPI finishes at 3.6% higher, a 22% chance it hits 3.8%, and a 17% chance it hits 3.5%. All three of those figures would present a marked jump from March, when core CPI pushed up 3.3% year-over-year thanks to rising energy costs..
  
  
• (Sports): Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes draw attention after sweeping first-round series: The Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes both advanced through the first round of the NHL Playoffs with respective four-game sweeps over the Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators over the weekend. And the odds for both emerging as the Stanley Cup Champion subsequently took a step forward. The Avs title hopes have taken the biggest leap, going from 18% in mid-April to 34% on Tuesday. The Hurricanes have taken a similar upward trajectory, going from a low of 14% in mid-March to 27%.

Contract Spotlight

Bitcoin High/Low Contracts Are Here!

Bitcoin maxis and crypto traders alike now have more ways to act on their market conviction with the launch of Gemini Predictions' new bitcoin High/Low touch contracts. Designed for both short and long durations, these contracts let you make a simple YES or NO prediction on whether bitcoin's price will reach a specific high or low within a defined timeframe. No buying, no selling, no giving up your sats.

Here's how they work: if bitcoin touches your specified price at any point during the contract's active window, you earn your payout. That's it. Make your prediction, set your amount, and let the market do the rest. Gemini Predictions has also launched 5-minute Up/Down bitcoin contracts for traders who want fast, directional picks with quick, defined settlement windows.

Touch contracts are simple and transparent. The risk is defined. You know your maximum payout and maximum loss upfront, with no margin calls or open-ended exposure. Contracts are priced continuously using live bitcoin market data right up to settlement, giving traders clean price discovery at every step.

On the Radar

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration in 2026?

FBI Director Kash Patel has had a controversial tenure leading one of the country’s top law enforcement agencies. And he’s currently the odds on favorite in the “Who Will Leave The Trump Administration in 2026” contract, with traders giving it an 81% chance he departs. The odds come as rumors swirl that President Donald Trump is ready to replace Patel over alleged misconduct. Earlier this month, Patel sued The Atlantic for $250 million for defamation after the magazine reported that he exhibited erratic behavior, unexplained absences and excessive drinking.

*This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency and event contracts involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment or predictions decisions. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini. *