Five Crypto Market Predictions for 2026

In 2025, the cryptocurrency world had high expectations. And in many ways, the year delivered a series of monumental moments.

In January, President Donald Trump announced plans to launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. In July, Congress passed the GENIUS ACT, setting a regulatory framework for stablecoins. After the crypto industry suffered from a regulation-by-enforcement approach under former SEC chair Gary Gensler, the agency took an innovation-first approach to the digital assets ecosystem, inviting input from top industry players.

At the same time, dozens of publicly-traded companies set up digital asset treasuries, mirroring Strategy’s aggressive bitcoin accumulation efforts and cementing bitcoin’s place as a presumably reliable store of value.

Despite the tailwinds, the price of bitcoin ticked up about 2%, trailing the tech-heavy NASDAQ’s 19% gain and the S&P 500’s 16% jump. Meanwhile, gold rallied 66%, its biggest one-year gain since 1979. And demand for silver surged.

What’s next? Is the crypto bull market finished? What about the four-year cycle? What’s in store for bitcoin, stablecoins, and the broader crypto ecosystem?

Here are five crypto predictions for 2026.

Prediction 1: Bitcoin Will Outperform Gold and Silver

The price of bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 on October 6 but was subsequently hit with a prolonged sell-off, then stalled below $90,000 through the end of the year.

Meanwhile, gold and silver prices surged in 2025, outpacing even the most bullish analysts as the US dollar debasement trade grew in popularity. But both gold and silver face headwinds. Silver faces up to $3.8 billion in short-term selling pressure via futures contracts because of an expected rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodities Index.

Gold has long thrived in a “risk-off” investing environment, but with at least two interest rate cuts and tax cuts set to take effect in 2026, it could soon become a risk-on environment.

Bitcoin has rallied out of the gate to start 2025, recapturing $95,000 on January 5 and pushing above $97,000 earlier this week before pulling back. Crypto still has numerous tailwinds, including a pro-innovation SEC, robust institutional and retail demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, and an increasing number of use cases for retail and institutional investors.

Prediction 2: Congress Will Pass the CLARITY Act

Last week, a bipartisan group of Senators met to discuss the CLARITY Act, which would set a broad regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The wide-ranging bill would formally give the Commodities Futures Trading Commission authority to regulate spot crypto markets as well as define when cryptocurrencies become securities, bringing long-needed clarity to the crypto space.

The Senate Banking Committee conducted a markup of their version of the bill this week, and the Senate Ag Committee is expected to present its own markup later this month. Once both bills are reconciled they will be sent to a vote in the US Senate. It would then need to pass the US House with a simple majority before President Trump could sign it into law.

The current bill still faces obstacles. On Wednesday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong objected to the latest markup, arguing it would essentially ban tokenized equities, give the government unlimited access to DeFi activities, provide unneeded oversight to the SEC, and essentially kill stablecoin rewards. But lawmakers have time to work out the remaining kinks in the coming weeks before the Ag Committee presents their own version of the legislation.

Passage would provide a monumental boost to the digital asset ecosystem, encouraging more institutional and retail participation. It would also formally end any chances of a “regulation-by-enforcement” approach were the SEC to fall under different leadership.

This is the year it finally gets passed.

Prediction 3: Bitcoin Will Break the “Four-Year” Cycle

Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle finished?

Historically, bitcoin prices have pushed higher in the lead-up to quadrennial halving event, which cuts the rewards for bitcoin miners in half. After the halving, prices have typically surged before going through a sustained sell-off when global equities decline. The most recent halving event occurred on April 20, 2024, and it cut the reward to 3.125 BTC. At the time, bitcoin was trading at around $65,000.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,00 in October before the drawback. But the ensuring rally back toward $100,000 calls into question whether the typical four-year cycle will play out. Past results don’t necessarily guarantee future performance. And the macro-climate for crypto assets is far more favorable now than it was during previous four-year cycles, given the growing global acceptance and increasingly favorable regulatory environment.

Indeed, bitcoin has traded in a more stable way than some equities over the past year, signifying the cryptocurrency’s entrenchment within traditional finance. There will still be some volatility caused by macro-uncertainty and an increasing number of leveraged bets in the coming years, but the same could be said for tech-heavy stocks betting big on AI. The bottom line: Established cryptocurrencies with real utility are poised to continue growing.

Prediction 4: Prediction Markets Will Continue To Grow, Boosting Crypto

Prediction markets surged in popularity over the past year, allowing investors to predict possible outcomes on a range of real-world events in culture, sports, politics, finance, and more. And there’s no sign their popularity will wane, with one analyst predicting they could reach $1 trillion in trading volume by the end of the decade.

The rise of prediction markets are inherently tied to the crypto space, in part because blockchain technology powers popular prediction markets platforms including Polymarket. The continued growth of these markets should therefore help fuel bitcoin and stablecoin adoption as traders increasingly look to hedge against real-world events.

As crypto platforms increasingly push into prediction markets, it will draw in more users and more capital. As the market matures, expect onchain activity to increase and crypto to benefit.

Prediction 5: Privacy-Focused Tokens Will Increase in Popularity

The rise of Zcash, a privacy-focused token, was among the most improbable crypto stories in 2025. Despite a challenging macro environment, the price surged nearly 100x as investors doubled down on a token focused on giving holders a surveillance-free way to move funds.

This is a natural reaction to crypto’s push into traditional finance. Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs now draw billions in inflows. Traditional banks are setting up their own stablecoins and tokenization initiatives. Financial professionals are now allowed to dedicate a portion of a client's 401Ks into digital assets. This is all a positive development for the digital asset economy as more use cases emerge.

But it doesn’t always align with bitcoin’s original, libertarian cypherpunk ethos, which is meant to be detached from the impact of centralized governance and the tradfi ecosystem. As crypto becomes more ingrained within that system, it stands to reason that these privacy-focused coins that eschew the tradfi system will gain in popularity, too.

Closing Thoughts

Despite the drawdown over the final three months of 2025, bitcoin and the broader digital assets market are still well positioned to continue their upward trajectory. Even with recent delays to the market structure bill, there’s ample reason to believe Congress will eventually pass the CLARITY Act and bring long-needed rules of the road that define the difference between a token and security. In turn, this should increase institutional participation at a time the US enters a low-interest, risk-on environment in which bitcoin typically thrives. With the national debt now above $38 trillion--debasing the value of the US dollar--it's still a favorable environment for digital assets. Stay bullish.