Gemini Predicted: Bitcoin Tops $80K, Banks Object to CLARITY Act Revision, and Knicks Emerge As Eastern Conference Favorite

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Predictions Market Pulse

• (Crypto) Bitcoin finally tops $80K, traders turn bullish: The price of bitcoin pushed past the $80,000 mark on Monday, breaking through a key threshold after it nearly hit the mark last week before pulling back. The push higher came despite a breakout of hostilities in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first sign of fighting in about a month. Gemini Predictions traders appear cautiously optimistic the top cryptocurrency will continue to push higher, pricing in a 46% chance it finishes the week at $82,000 or above.
  
  
• (Economics) CLARITY Act hits snag again after compromise: Following months of negotiations, lawmakers reportedly reached a compromise late last week on stablecoin yield language for the CLARITY Act. But the banking lobby pushed back again in a statement Monday, saying the new text leaves gaps that could threaten deposits. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) said he expects a formal markup for crypto’s long-anticipated market structure bill in the Senate later this month, but it’s unclear what happens next. The CLARITY Act stalled first earlier this year amid a disagreement between the banking and crypto lobby over the particulars of stablecoin offering yield.
  
  
• (Sports) Knicks emerge as Eastern Conference favorites: In the span of a week, the New York Knicks have gone from fearing a potential first-round exit to becoming the favorite to win the Eastern Conference. After falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks, the Knicks reeled off three straight wins, then dominated the Philadelphia 76ers 137 to 98 on Monday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. As of Tuesday morning, Gemini Predictions traders gave New York a 49% chance to win the Eastern Conference, up from 12% on April 24.

Contract Spotlight

When Will the Traffic at the Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal?

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader. In retaliation, Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked merchant vessels, demanded transit fees, and laid sea mines across the waterway, effectively shutting down a corridor through which roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil and LNG normally passes. The IEA has called it the largest oil supply disruption in the history of global energy markets, surpassing even the 1970s oil shocks.

Before the war, around 3,000 vessels transited the strait each month. By March that figure had collapsed to just 154 — roughly 5% of the pre-war baseline. A two-week ceasefire declared on April 8 briefly raised hopes, but shipping remained at a near-standstill, with over 600 vessels — including 325 tankers — still stranded in the Gulf in the days that followed. A subsequent U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports compounded the gridlock, creating a dual-blockade structure that has kept daily transits in the single digits through early May.

Gemini offers a contract on when shipping will return to more normal levels. Specifically, if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcome is verified from IMF PortWatch.

On the Radar

S&P Close Price End of 2026?

The S&P 500 has officially recovered from its volatile start to 2026, pushing 5% higher year-to-date as of Monday’s close, at 7,200.75. Gemini Predictions traders are pricing in more gains into the end of 2026, predicting a 59% combined chance it ends the year at or above that level (11% between 7,200 to 7,399.99; 17% between 7,400 to 7,599.99; 17% between 7,600 to 7,799.99; and 14% between 7,800 to 7,999.99).

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